Steve Jobs doesn't lack talent, and he's got a nerve too. Indeed the introduction of the Mac Mini and the iPod Shuffle on Tuesday shows that the Apple founder undoubtedly gives his company the greatest change in policy in its history. The challenge is as much nice as it is daring. And it is about winning back the customers left to Windows for too long, with two products that are both nice and cheap. The concept is both simple and brilliant, since it is about making the most of the trade's success put under the spotlight that was created by the success of the iPod, to sell a computer, the Mac mini : and Apple expects it to become, like the iPod, a leading product, an icon, a social phenomenon. What's more, when it offers a computer that is quite powerful and neatly designed, equipped with a user-friendly software suite, at an absolutely unbeatable price, Apple pulls for good the rug out from under his detractors, who thought the prices of the computers belonging to Cupertino limited its development. So, as usual, Apple innovates, produces nice and powerful machines and for the first time, the prices are within the general public's pocket.

And yet, though this challenge is nice, it is a risky one.

Indeed when Apple created a cultural icon with the iPod highly valued in trendy backgrounds, it actually appeals to well-off customers, or to teens who regard the iPod as a cult object, a rare object, a trade, a luxury goods, like some sports items. Now luxury costs money , and when Apple introduced a cheap iPod Shuffle, that might become a second-rate iPod, a "cheap" object, the company takes the risk of diminishing the sacred aura of a cult object, that may suddenly lose its originality in the eyes of the consumer greedy for fashionable objects. Conversely, if the Apple strategists consider that the iPod sales can't go any further, because it is too expensive and its number of well-off customers is limited and so, if they suppose that less well-off customers are going to pounce on a little usb player with a flash memory simply because it's called iPod and it's got the Apple symbol, then it will be a success story and the sign that our favourite trademark has become a cult trademark itself for the general public. And that would be a mini revolution.

Now, if the adventure of the Shuffle isn't particularly risky, the Mac mini one will have to be followed with much attention, because the risks are much greater. Apple's objective, somewhat similar to the one at the time of the first iMac release, is to sell the Mac mini to switchers who wish to move from PC to Mac, to people who wish to buy a computer for the first time, and to its regular "niche" (us!) in offering a cult Mac like the Cube in the past. Yet, when it offered the iMac, Apple proposed simplicity,"all-in-one", immediate functionality, user-friendliness and, at that time, obvious performances . With the Mac mini aimed at a public that isn't always aware of the computer "joys", Apple may introduce some complexity, since these customers will have to go and get a keyboard, a mouse and a screen when they were used to walk out of a department store with an "all-in-one" solution. What's more, if you add a limited distribution network for the general public, and delivery waiting periods that may look horrifying and complex to customers used to simplicity, the objective may not be reached. To get the same success as for the iPod, Apple - an unobtrusive trademark - will probably have to communicate on the Mac mini as much as it did for the iPod, and with more regularity. Apple will also have - though they are aware of it - to realize that you don't sell an mp3 player as you sell a computer. And when the margin was comfortable for the iPod, it is much thinner for the Mac mini, they will therefore have to sell in large quantities, and be able to produce and respect the deadlines. If Apple manages to transform the Mac mini into a cult object for the general public and to cope with the marketing, the production and the distribution that have to accompany this product, then it will undoubtedly be a success.

On the other hand, at worst, if the Mac mini was to be a failure among the general public, Apple would have no alternative but to withdraw it from its products, because the Mac mini is threatening some of its more specialized products. Indeed, if for some of us, it has already become a cult object, for some companies or big institutions that buy in large quantities, it represents a solution that is three times cheaper than the first Mac "tour", and for some of them, they will be tempted to move from a G5 to a computer that has a lower performance but that is three times cheaper. As for the Apple "niche", composed of "free-lance" people in many different fields, and that was a great consumer of Apple "pro" computers, they may as well peer at a very affordable Mini Mac that has no PCI ports, but it doesn't really matter since there are many FireWire peripherals that perfectly adapt a semi-professional practice. Finally, schools and other universities, may not be so much interested in a product that has the same problematic as a PC : they were only attracted by the simplicity of an "all-in-one" solution of the iMac and mostly the eMac.

If Apple sees its high-performance Mac sales drop, on which the largest margin is made, and that the success of the Mac isn't effective, the Cupertino firm would be in a very tricky situation, and could even no longer afford its professional product development. The risk is therefore colossal.

But if the Mac mini meets as much success as the iPod, Steve Jobs will undoubtedly have won the biggest challenge in his life and in Apple's. Indeed if the "normal" iPods sales go on, if the iPods Shuffle customers have materialized (500.000 shuffles will be produced every month), if the Mini Mac also becomes a cult object (100.000 will be produced every month), and if the regular customers remain faithful to their usual products (Apple plan to produce 5.000.000 Macs is 2005) , but also buys the new ones, that will be a tremendous success for Apple.

We can only wish all the best to Steve Jobs, it's in the interest of Apple, but surely in ours too.

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